Alishan in Taiwan






The imminent arrival of the first wave of tourists from the Chinese mainland has positive implications for Taiwan's tourism industry and for its economy.

Analysts expect that 3,000 Chinese visitors a day would generate $2 billion in revenues, boost the island's overall hotel occupancy rate by 22 percent and its hotel room rates by 15 percent, and add 0.5 percent to GDP growth.



With the number of tourists likely to increase far beyond 3,000 a day, the sky is the limit.

For historical and cultural reasons, Taiwan is expected to be very popular with mainland tourists, and analysts believe that such tourism will eventually become a key pillar of Taiwan's economy, just as it has in Hong Kong.




A tourism revival



Taiwan's tourism industry has long been moribund. Taiwan receives fewer than a million Japanese tourists every year, and a trickle of visitors from Hong Kong and Singapore.

In 2007, only 3.7 million people visited Taiwan, a growth rate of just 5.6 percent compared with 2006, and of those 3.7 million visitors, only half were tourists, and the rest were business travelers or people visiting relatives.

In sharp contrast, Hong Kong received a whopping 28 million visitors in 2007, up 11.6 percent from 2006, including 15.4 million visitors from the Chinese mainland.



Because of low visitor numbers, Taiwan's hotels have struggled with poor occupancy rates for many years, usually in the range of 60 percent to 70 percent, and the hotels also suffer from some of the lowest room rates in Asia.

In 2007, for example, the overall occupancy rate of hotels in Taiwan was 67 percent, with an average room rate of just NT$3,200 ($105). In Hong Kong, by contrast, the average room rate in 2007 was $156.



"Taiwan now has the cheapest hotel rates among all the cities in Asia," says Stanley Yen, president of Landis Hotels and Resorts, which manages eight hotels and resorts in Taiwan, and two hotels in the Chinese mainland. "It is difficult for hotel operators here, because it doesn't give you enough return to justify the investment."




Current situation



In 2007, due to the tourism restrictions of Taiwan and the lack of direct flights, only 86,000 mainlanders visited Taiwan.



Yet these two hurdles look ready to disappear, and the benefits to Taiwan's tourism industry will be enormous.

Macquarie expects Taiwan's tourism revenue to grow 12 percent per year for the next three years, almost exclusively due to visitors from the Chinese mainland, far outstripping the 5 percent growth in tourism revenue from 2004 to 2007. By 2010, if 3,000 mainland visitors a day were to travel to Taiwan, they would add $2 billion in revenues, according to the Macquarie report.

    Sun Moon Lake in Taiwan






Analysts expect that in the beginning, 1,000 mainlanders will visit each day, and they believe the number will rise to 3,000 visitors a day by 2009, or about 1.1 million per year.

As for direct charter flights, those are expected to begin on July 4, with 36 direct charter flights each weekend between Taipei and Kaohsiung, and Beijing, Shanghai, Xiamen and Guangzhou.



Similarly, mainland tourism is also set to start very soon, says Ellen Chiu, a tourism analyst at Macquarie Capital Securities in Taiwan, and co-author of the Macquarie report. "I am projecting that it will start in the third quarter of 2008," says Chiu. "The mechanism right now is, without any further negotiation, they could open up to 1,000 tourists a day without doing anything."



The average mainland tour group in Taiwan is expected to have about 30 people, and each group is projected to stay seven to 10 days, with each tourist spending about $250 a day.

Almost every tour will visit Taipei, say analysts, with the National Palace Museum in Taipei, Taipei 101 Tower, the Sun Yat-sen and Chiang Kai-shek memorial halls, and the Shihlin Night Market likely to be on most itineraries.



Among all the businesses in Taiwan, the hotels will gain the most from the expected surge of tourism, says Chiu. "The current data is that 50 percent of the mainland spending will be on hotel bills, so I believe that hotels will benefit more than any other business, and before 2010 hotel rooms may even face a supply shortage," she says.




Boost for Taipei



Apart from hotels, the next-biggest beneficiary is likely to be the Taiwan High-Speed Rail, a state-of-the-art elevated rail that travels at 300 kilometers an hour, and stops at eight cities on the island’s west coast.

Many of the group tours will book seats on the High-Speed Rail, which stops at key attractions such as the Sun Moon Lake and Alishan (a scenic mountain range), and it terminates in the southern city of Kaohsiung, which is popular for its harbor views and its fine seafood.



Taiwan's retail industry will likewise benefit, but also indirectly, say analysts. When mainland tourists began arriving in Hong Kong in huge numbers earlier this decade, the retail sector – particularly shops selling jewelry and electronics – was given an enormous boost.

Taiwan is not as much of a shopping paradise as Hong Kong, and it will receive fewer of the shopping-mad one- and two-day visitors who go to Hong Kong mostly to buy things, says Chiu.




According to the World Tourism Organization, Chinese mainland generated 41 million outbound tourists in 2007, and that number continues to grow each year, which means that 3,000 visitors a day, or 1.1 million each year, represents only a tiny fraction of the potential numbers of mainland tourists who might come to Taiwan.


That 3,000-a day number could be raised in the future, and if it is, revenue and GDP growth would surge accordingly.




Most analysts believe Taiwan has enough infrastructure – hotels, airport space, transportation links, and tourism sites – to easily accommodate at least the initial 3,000 visitors a day.




"In popular tourist spots, such as Sun Moon Lake, Alishan and various national scenic areas, the basic infrastructure, transport and facilities of these areas will be closely examined and improved in order to provide a better tourist environment," says Christine Lai, an official of the Taiwan Tourism Bureau.






The Tourism Bureau has also set up a hotline for mainland travelers, in case they have problems to report, and it is holding training courses for travel agents and hotels, to better prepare them for the influx of visitors.



Beyond that, all they can do is wait for the announcement, a prospect that fills the tourism sector with anticipation. "You will see more people smiling on the streets of these days," says Eddie Lee, owner of Taipei-based Tiptop Tour and Travel, a travel agency that is Asia's leading wholesaler of hotel rooms. "There is more optimism about the future, because we have been suffering for so many years. Taiwan has nothing to lose, and much to gain."

beautiful place!!!

speak english only

[ 本帖最后由 teenie 于 2008-8-14 19:51 编辑 ]